Saturday, March 31, 2012

Things they are a changin'....

So things are starting to take shape....kind of. So now we know Fontenot is cut. Gone. Later. Why Fontenot and not Theriot? Easy answer really. Because Theriot's right handed. That's it. Nevermind that Fontenot is a better defender and is a known quantity to us Giants fans. Theriot has very limited range but has a history of hitting (.282 career hitter). Of course, he hit .242 in the playoffs last year with 1 walk in 12 games. He's on the downside, like 15% grade, of his career. With so many lefties in the lineup, I GUESS, the front office felt Theriot more valuable. Let's just say I disagree. I'll ask one more question about this situation. If I was to ask you 2 months ago who'd you rather have, Theriot or Jeff Keppinger, who would you take? Outside of his injury filled September, Keppinger is much more valuable. Well played Giants.

So Vogey and Freddy go on to the DL as well as Surkamp. In my opinion, Freddy is done. While he's a nice player, he's not a difference maker when fully healthy. He's a compliment. 6 years ago, he was an NL batting champ but hasn't hit .300 since 2007. So why is everyone expecting him to be so instrumental in the lineup? If he's your 5th/6th best hitter, that's perfect. So I hope he gets healthy and replaces Burriss (yes, your 2012 starting 2B), but I'm not holding my breath.

Let's talk roster spots, shall we. The no doubt about it's are:

Lincecum, Cain, MadBum, Zito, Affeldt, Casilla, Hensley, Lopez, Romo, Wilson, Mota, Posey, Huff, Burriss, Theriot, Crawford, Panda, Melky, Pagan, Nate, Blanco.

That's 21. There's no backup catcher or the 12th pitcher which the Giants have decided to go with because Zito pitches in Colorado. Pretty ridiculous that they need to roster an extra pitcher because they KNOW Zito sucks. But I'll get to him in a bit. So, here's how the other 4 spots could shake out.

Pitcher wise, there's a few guys who could break camp with the big club. Dan Otero, Steve Edelfsen, Yusmeiro Petit, Jean Machi

Otero - He's the guy I'd like to make it. Not because I said he might make it in my January 25th post but because he throws strikes and has a closers mentality (86 saves in 5 minor league seasons)
Edelfsen- Retread from last year, not interested.
Petit - Found his stuff during ST and is more of a long relief/spot start guy. Much like Mota but he'll never be Mota.
Machi -  Career minor leaguer who's thrown well in ST

I say Otero out of those guys so that leaves 3 spots for offensive players. And this really depends on whether or not they keep 3 catchers. There's a bunch of guys left:
Arias, Belt, Pill, Whiteside, Stewart, Sanchez
In my opinion, I really hope they keep Sanchez as the only backup. The backup to Posey will get 2 starts a week most likely which equates to roughly 200 AB's, probably more depending on how many games Posey plays at 1B. Then you get 2 out of 3 with Arias, Belt, Pill. Gut feeling? They go Pill and Arias and start Belt in AAA until someone gets hurt. Arias because he can back up all infield spots. Pill for right handed pop on the bench. Belt needs AB's wherever he goes so AAA is the quick fix.

With the questionable moves the Giants have continued to make, they're going to need a lot of luck to contend this year. Start with a healthy Posey and Panda, then get significant contributions from Huff, Melky and Pagan, have Crawford hit .250 and have Nate continue to grow or Blanco win the 3rd OF spot in season. All of those things happen and Zito gets cut at some point (ok, they'll never cut him but he'll mysteriously have ankle injury and get DL'd), the Giants are right there at the end of the year.

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