Saturday, March 31, 2012

Things they are a changin'....

So things are starting to take shape....kind of. So now we know Fontenot is cut. Gone. Later. Why Fontenot and not Theriot? Easy answer really. Because Theriot's right handed. That's it. Nevermind that Fontenot is a better defender and is a known quantity to us Giants fans. Theriot has very limited range but has a history of hitting (.282 career hitter). Of course, he hit .242 in the playoffs last year with 1 walk in 12 games. He's on the downside, like 15% grade, of his career. With so many lefties in the lineup, I GUESS, the front office felt Theriot more valuable. Let's just say I disagree. I'll ask one more question about this situation. If I was to ask you 2 months ago who'd you rather have, Theriot or Jeff Keppinger, who would you take? Outside of his injury filled September, Keppinger is much more valuable. Well played Giants.

So Vogey and Freddy go on to the DL as well as Surkamp. In my opinion, Freddy is done. While he's a nice player, he's not a difference maker when fully healthy. He's a compliment. 6 years ago, he was an NL batting champ but hasn't hit .300 since 2007. So why is everyone expecting him to be so instrumental in the lineup? If he's your 5th/6th best hitter, that's perfect. So I hope he gets healthy and replaces Burriss (yes, your 2012 starting 2B), but I'm not holding my breath.

Let's talk roster spots, shall we. The no doubt about it's are:

Lincecum, Cain, MadBum, Zito, Affeldt, Casilla, Hensley, Lopez, Romo, Wilson, Mota, Posey, Huff, Burriss, Theriot, Crawford, Panda, Melky, Pagan, Nate, Blanco.

That's 21. There's no backup catcher or the 12th pitcher which the Giants have decided to go with because Zito pitches in Colorado. Pretty ridiculous that they need to roster an extra pitcher because they KNOW Zito sucks. But I'll get to him in a bit. So, here's how the other 4 spots could shake out.

Pitcher wise, there's a few guys who could break camp with the big club. Dan Otero, Steve Edelfsen, Yusmeiro Petit, Jean Machi

Otero - He's the guy I'd like to make it. Not because I said he might make it in my January 25th post but because he throws strikes and has a closers mentality (86 saves in 5 minor league seasons)
Edelfsen- Retread from last year, not interested.
Petit - Found his stuff during ST and is more of a long relief/spot start guy. Much like Mota but he'll never be Mota.
Machi -  Career minor leaguer who's thrown well in ST

I say Otero out of those guys so that leaves 3 spots for offensive players. And this really depends on whether or not they keep 3 catchers. There's a bunch of guys left:
Arias, Belt, Pill, Whiteside, Stewart, Sanchez
In my opinion, I really hope they keep Sanchez as the only backup. The backup to Posey will get 2 starts a week most likely which equates to roughly 200 AB's, probably more depending on how many games Posey plays at 1B. Then you get 2 out of 3 with Arias, Belt, Pill. Gut feeling? They go Pill and Arias and start Belt in AAA until someone gets hurt. Arias because he can back up all infield spots. Pill for right handed pop on the bench. Belt needs AB's wherever he goes so AAA is the quick fix.

With the questionable moves the Giants have continued to make, they're going to need a lot of luck to contend this year. Start with a healthy Posey and Panda, then get significant contributions from Huff, Melky and Pagan, have Crawford hit .250 and have Nate continue to grow or Blanco win the 3rd OF spot in season. All of those things happen and Zito gets cut at some point (ok, they'll never cut him but he'll mysteriously have ankle injury and get DL'd), the Giants are right there at the end of the year.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Just few days away.....

As Spring Training winds down, the Giants brass has some decisions to make. "The best players are going to play". Now we've heard Bochey bellow some form of this statement for months on end and we all know it's a lie. Yes, Bochey is a liar. So is Sabean. Now, I understand why they lie. They need that statement to create "competition" among the guys who are on the fence to make the squad during ST <-----That's short for Spring Training now. But we all know it's nowhere near the truth. Let's examine.

Is Barry Zito one of the best pitchers on the staff? No he's ranked 13th on a 12 man staff. But there are $126 Million reasons why he's the 5th starter. Everyone in the league and on the planet knows Zito should be out of baseball but it's something as fans we need to deal with.

Is Eli Whiteside or Chris Stewart the 2nd best catcher in the Giants organization? Of course not. Hector Sanchez is hitting .389 with 4 bombs in ST. And minor leaguer Tommy Joseph will be a force a year from now. ST numbers aren't everything but Stew-side doesn't hit that well while using themselves on the X-Box. But all indications are Bochean is taking either Whiteside or Stewart North with them to start the season.With Posey catching maybe 110 games this year, the backup catcher will get a ton of AB's so the Giants need a guy that does more than just calls a good game. Hey Bochean....liars.

Is Brandon Belt the "future"? I'm not sold on that but he's much more the future than Huff is. But I hate that it's a foregone conclusion that Huff starts somewhere no matter what. It's plain to see that Huff is the 3rd best 1st baseman on the ST roster, behind Belt and Brett Pill. Bochean has decided to keep Pill as a righty off the bench, which is right where you want a guy who needs AB's to be successful. Baffling.

So what should they do with the roster you ask. Here's what I see:

Starters:
Lincecum, MadBum, Cain, Vogelsong, Zito

Relievers:
Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Mota, Romo, Hensley, Wilson

Infielders:
Posey, Sanchez, Belt, Huff, Pill, Fontenot, Crawford, Burriss, Sandoval

Outfielders:
Cabrera, Pagan, Schierholtz, Blanco

DL: Freddy Sanchez, Theriot

That's the "best" 25 man roster I could come up with. The only changes I think Bochean switches with this roster is they switch Sanchez for Steweart or Whiteside and believe it or not, keep Theriot on the roster and start Belt in Fresno. I can't fathom them doing this unless they have their heart set on giving Huff a spot.

--Now Vogey may miss a start to begin the year and if that happens, I see Clay Hensley making a spot start especially with Eric Surkamp down for a week or two with elbow stiffness.
--Freddy Sanchez won't be ready for Opening Day and Manny Burriss has earned the starting spot thus far in ST. I'm not sold on Burriss as an answer in the starting lineup but he's earned a shot.
--A very real possibility is a lineup in which Melky slides to right field and Huff plays left and Belt 1B. This happens if the Giants decide that Nasty Nate isn't going to be the right fielder. Injuries have slowed Nate's progress in ST and he's shown that he can not stay healthy.
--Angel Pagan, much to my chagrin, has struggled mightily during ST. They will have him start in CF to start the year but Melky could easily end up being your CF and that opens many doors. Gregor Blanco has shown an ability to get on base and steal bags so don't be surprised to see him quite a bit this year.

Here's a look at what the Opening Day lineup MAY look like:
1 - Angel Pagan, CF
2 - Melky Cabrera, LF
3 - Pablo Sandoval, 3B
4 - Buster Posey, C
5 - Aubrey Huff, 1B
6 - Nate Schierholtz, RF
7 - Manny Burriss, 2B
8 - Brandon Crawford, SS
9 - Tim Lincecum, P

With Burriss in the lineup, the Giants have 4 switch hitters. And if Nate isn't starting, Belt slides in to that spot in the order.

So there you have it. There are really only 2-3 spots on the 25 man roster with questions. Will the best players get those spots? 100% no. But hey, Bochean has won a World Series, so we should trust them right?