Things they are a changin'....

So things are starting to take shape....kind of. So now we know Fontenot is cut. Gone. Later. Why Fontenot and not Theriot? Easy answer really. Because Theriot's right handed. That's it. Nevermind that Fontenot is a better defender and is a known quantity to us Giants fans. Theriot has very limited range but has a history of hitting (.282 career hitter). Of course, he hit .242 in the playoffs last year with 1 walk in 12 games. He's on the downside, like 15% grade, of his career. With so many lefties in the lineup, I GUESS, the front office felt Theriot more valuable. Let's just say I disagree. I'll ask one more question about this situation. If I was to ask you 2 months ago who'd you rather have, Theriot or Jeff Keppinger, who would you take? Outside of his injury filled September, Keppinger is much more valuable. Well played Giants.

So Vogey and Freddy go on to the DL as well as Surkamp. In my opinion, Freddy is done. While he's a nice player, he's not a difference maker when fully healthy. He's a compliment. 6 years ago, he was an NL batting champ but hasn't hit .300 since 2007. So why is everyone expecting him to be so instrumental in the lineup? If he's your 5th/6th best hitter, that's perfect. So I hope he gets healthy and replaces Burriss (yes, your 2012 starting 2B), but I'm not holding my breath.

Let's talk roster spots, shall we. The no doubt about it's are:

Lincecum, Cain, MadBum, Zito, Affeldt, Casilla, Hensley, Lopez, Romo, Wilson, Mota, Posey, Huff, Burriss, Theriot, Crawford, Panda, Melky, Pagan, Nate, Blanco.

That's 21. There's no backup catcher or the 12th pitcher which the Giants have decided to go with because Zito pitches in Colorado. Pretty ridiculous that they need to roster an extra pitcher because they KNOW Zito sucks. But I'll get to him in a bit. So, here's how the other 4 spots could shake out.

Pitcher wise, there's a few guys who could break camp with the big club. Dan Otero, Steve Edelfsen, Yusmeiro Petit, Jean Machi

Otero - He's the guy I'd like to make it. Not because I said he might make it in my January 25th post but because he throws strikes and has a closers mentality (86 saves in 5 minor league seasons)
Edelfsen- Retread from last year, not interested.
Petit - Found his stuff during ST and is more of a long relief/spot start guy. Much like Mota but he'll never be Mota.
Machi -  Career minor leaguer who's thrown well in ST

I say Otero out of those guys so that leaves 3 spots for offensive players. And this really depends on whether or not they keep 3 catchers. There's a bunch of guys left:
Arias, Belt, Pill, Whiteside, Stewart, Sanchez
In my opinion, I really hope they keep Sanchez as the only backup. The backup to Posey will get 2 starts a week most likely which equates to roughly 200 AB's, probably more depending on how many games Posey plays at 1B. Then you get 2 out of 3 with Arias, Belt, Pill. Gut feeling? They go Pill and Arias and start Belt in AAA until someone gets hurt. Arias because he can back up all infield spots. Pill for right handed pop on the bench. Belt needs AB's wherever he goes so AAA is the quick fix.

With the questionable moves the Giants have continued to make, they're going to need a lot of luck to contend this year. Start with a healthy Posey and Panda, then get significant contributions from Huff, Melky and Pagan, have Crawford hit .250 and have Nate continue to grow or Blanco win the 3rd OF spot in season. All of those things happen and Zito gets cut at some point (ok, they'll never cut him but he'll mysteriously have ankle injury and get DL'd), the Giants are right there at the end of the year.

Just few days away.....

As Spring Training winds down, the Giants brass has some decisions to make. "The best players are going to play". Now we've heard Bochey bellow some form of this statement for months on end and we all know it's a lie. Yes, Bochey is a liar. So is Sabean. Now, I understand why they lie. They need that statement to create "competition" among the guys who are on the fence to make the squad during ST <-----That's short for Spring Training now. But we all know it's nowhere near the truth. Let's examine.

Is Barry Zito one of the best pitchers on the staff? No he's ranked 13th on a 12 man staff. But there are $126 Million reasons why he's the 5th starter. Everyone in the league and on the planet knows Zito should be out of baseball but it's something as fans we need to deal with.

Is Eli Whiteside or Chris Stewart the 2nd best catcher in the Giants organization? Of course not. Hector Sanchez is hitting .389 with 4 bombs in ST. And minor leaguer Tommy Joseph will be a force a year from now. ST numbers aren't everything but Stew-side doesn't hit that well while using themselves on the X-Box. But all indications are Bochean is taking either Whiteside or Stewart North with them to start the season.With Posey catching maybe 110 games this year, the backup catcher will get a ton of AB's so the Giants need a guy that does more than just calls a good game. Hey Bochean....liars.

Is Brandon Belt the "future"? I'm not sold on that but he's much more the future than Huff is. But I hate that it's a foregone conclusion that Huff starts somewhere no matter what. It's plain to see that Huff is the 3rd best 1st baseman on the ST roster, behind Belt and Brett Pill. Bochean has decided to keep Pill as a righty off the bench, which is right where you want a guy who needs AB's to be successful. Baffling.

So what should they do with the roster you ask. Here's what I see:

Starters:
Lincecum, MadBum, Cain, Vogelsong, Zito

Relievers:
Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Mota, Romo, Hensley, Wilson

Infielders:
Posey, Sanchez, Belt, Huff, Pill, Fontenot, Crawford, Burriss, Sandoval

Outfielders:
Cabrera, Pagan, Schierholtz, Blanco

DL: Freddy Sanchez, Theriot

That's the "best" 25 man roster I could come up with. The only changes I think Bochean switches with this roster is they switch Sanchez for Steweart or Whiteside and believe it or not, keep Theriot on the roster and start Belt in Fresno. I can't fathom them doing this unless they have their heart set on giving Huff a spot.

--Now Vogey may miss a start to begin the year and if that happens, I see Clay Hensley making a spot start especially with Eric Surkamp down for a week or two with elbow stiffness.
--Freddy Sanchez won't be ready for Opening Day and Manny Burriss has earned the starting spot thus far in ST. I'm not sold on Burriss as an answer in the starting lineup but he's earned a shot.
--A very real possibility is a lineup in which Melky slides to right field and Huff plays left and Belt 1B. This happens if the Giants decide that Nasty Nate isn't going to be the right fielder. Injuries have slowed Nate's progress in ST and he's shown that he can not stay healthy.
--Angel Pagan, much to my chagrin, has struggled mightily during ST. They will have him start in CF to start the year but Melky could easily end up being your CF and that opens many doors. Gregor Blanco has shown an ability to get on base and steal bags so don't be surprised to see him quite a bit this year.

Here's a look at what the Opening Day lineup MAY look like:
1 - Angel Pagan, CF
2 - Melky Cabrera, LF
3 - Pablo Sandoval, 3B
4 - Buster Posey, C
5 - Aubrey Huff, 1B
6 - Nate Schierholtz, RF
7 - Manny Burriss, 2B
8 - Brandon Crawford, SS
9 - Tim Lincecum, P

With Burriss in the lineup, the Giants have 4 switch hitters. And if Nate isn't starting, Belt slides in to that spot in the order.

So there you have it. There are really only 2-3 spots on the 25 man roster with questions. Will the best players get those spots? 100% no. But hey, Bochean has won a World Series, so we should trust them right?

Signings and Such....

Lotsa arbitration stuff to deal with so let's just dive in. Nothing real shocking but there were some notable moves. Let's get the bad out of the way.

Bad
-Having to pay Melky $6 mil for a career year in the AL isn't ideal but the Giants knew that was going to happen. He's had 6 years of service and in today's baseball world, that's what a serviceable OF is worth.
-Whiteside and Burriss getting any deal at all is bad in my mind because they are just taking up roster spots. I realize they make a combined $1.25 mil but those spots could be used differently.
-Paying Pagan $4.85 mil will only be bad if he doesn't play 140 games, which is a 50/50 proposition. I'm much higher on him than most, as I've pointed out previously. He could be a bargain at that price but the uncertainty is the drawback. Of course, the Giants knew his number would be around that so it is what it is.
-Fontenot and not Keppinger. I've discussed this ad nauseum. I see Keppy as being the better fit and he would have only made maybe a million more than $1.05 mil Font got. 


The Kind-Of-Good-But-We-Knew-It -Was-Happening
-Schierholtz getting $1.3 mil is great if he stays healthy. He won't be the worst hitter in any lineup and his defense is A+. He comes with the health caveat however. If he stays healthy, he's a super bargain.
-Casilla gets $2.2 mil to be the 7th inning righty. Right on par with what he should make for his years of service but a bargain for what his numbers are.
-Romo is the ultra super mega bargain of the offseason. We all knew he'd make under $2 mil but getting the best middle reliever in the game (www.mccoveychronicles.com/2012/1/20/2721757/on-sergio-romo?ref=yahoo) for $1.57 mil is an absolute steal. He's dirty, 'nuff said.

The Good
- Signing Panda for 3/$18 mil. Great deal for a top 5 3B in the league (Bautista in TOR, Longoria, Beltre, David Wright and Panda). My thought is this. In year 3 of the deal he'll be making $8.25 mil. If he doesn't improve (which he 100% will), the Giants are getting .300, 25+ HR, 80+ RBI production for that $8+ mil. Well done Sabes.
-The Song signed for 2/$8 mil with a club option for a 3rd year at $6.5 mil. Great value for a 3rd starter that the Giants use as a 4th starter. Even if he regresses, which is likely, he's still a very low 3's ERA guy that will go deep into games. Really like that deal.
-Lincy for a boat load of cash. 2/$44.5 mil. Huge numbers but that's what a 2 time Cy Young award winner is worth. Now, he turned down a 5/$100 mil offer before signing a 2 year deal so how do we interpret that? Off the bat I thought it was a clear sign that after the 2013 season, he's gone, off to Seattle (can't see him in NY or BOS). But the Giants got a top 5 starter for the next 2 years and there's no reason they can't extend him during the 2013 season. So my advice in looking at this contract...enjoy the fact that you get the Freak for 2 more years. And if for whatever reason the Giants aren't contending in 2013, is there a bigger piece of trade bait in the league? They could re-stock the farm system from the raping that was the Carlos Beltran rental for 44 games last year.

So there you have it. Overall after the utter failure that the front office and ownership put forth during the free agent period, it was a solid round of arbitration and signings. So here's a look at what the roster "MIGHT" look like come opening day:
Pitchers (11):
Lincecum, Cain, MadBum, The Song, Zito
B Weezy, Romo, Casilla, Javy, Affeldt, Mota
Catchers (2):
Posey, Whiteside
Infielders (8):
Huff, Belt, Pill, Sanchez, Fontenot, Crawford, Burriss, Panda
Outfielders (3):
Melky, Pagan, Nasty Nate

Now, obvi Belt, Huff and Burriss can play the OF so that's why there are only 3 outfielders listed. That's 24 players. So I left room for 1 wild card. Thoughts on who it could be? I've got some.

Chris Stewart: Yeah, I'm sure Bochean will decide he's the 25th man. Old, no upside....seems like the obvious choice.

Hector Sanchez: He SHOULD be the backup catcher instead of Whiteside. He could catch 2 games a week for Posey so he'd get his AB's. Not bad to have switch hit pop on the bench either. If he's not brought up, he should stay in Fresno all year and get 500+ AB's.

There's a few minor league pitchers that could get the nod as the 12th man in the bullpen. Guys we've seen before (Runzler...gross, Osiris Matos, Waldis Jaoquin) and guys we haven't (David Quinowski and Dan Otero).

The 25th man depends on what they decide to do with the bullpen. I guess gun to my head, I'd prefer a young guy in the bully to learn from the vets. But whatever Bochean decides I'm positive will be the wrong decision. All in all, the Giants have a team to compete for the West title, but A LOT of things need to break right for them. I hate hoping for things but that's what we're left with as Giants fans. More discussions will be posted as we get closer to Spring Training....

And We're Baaaaaack!!!!!

It's been awhile and I've stepped off the ledge from the firey mess that was the SF Giants 2011 season. No need to go into last season. Poor offense, poor coaching, poor GM'ing and poor front office performances were the norm. But, we're done with that. Over. Finished. I put the starting lineup card, a lock of Buster Posey's hair, Panda's wrist brace and Sabean's turquoise bracelet in a pot and burned them while reciting some ancient Sumarian curse lifter for the upcoming season.

Now onto what has been an underwhelming (see, pathetic) offseason. Now I know you think I'm going to lambaste Sabean for his short comings here. But alas, he gets a semi-pass. The ownership is slowly becoming the laughing stock of the baseball world. A huge market/fan base, a recent World Series Title and the best pitching staff in the league should be the beginning of an uptick in payroll. Now, maybe their payroll has grown in the last few years, but nowhere near what it should be. The way baseball is now, there's really only 10-12 teams that can win a world series. Those are the teams that throw money, wisely, at problem areas of a roster. Look at what the Angels, Rangers and Miami Marlins have done in the offseason. I'm not saying shell out $100 million for Reyes/Pujols/Prince but signing a guy like Beltran (2 yr/$26 mil)or Cuddyer (3 yr/$33 mil) or Rollins (3 yr/$33 mil) could have been done. So let's take a look at the moves done this offseason:

Melky Cabrera for J. Sanchez

Loved this deal. In Cabrera we get a plus outfielder, a switch hitter that can be a quality 2 hitter but is perfect at 6th or 7th in the lineup. He'll most likely hit around .270, steal a bag here and there and can play all 3 OF spots. One drawback is he doesn't get on base as much as he should but that's a common theme amongst Giants hitters. In this trade, we also get rid of The Great Potential. We've all heard how great Sanchez can be, and we've seen glimpses (the no-no he threw and without him down the stretch in 2010, the Giants don't make the playoffs). But I'm glad to be rid of him and won't miss every one of his starts where (fingers crossed) he goes 4 1/3, walks 5 and gives up 3 runs.
Grade: B

Angel Pagan for Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez

Now, I'll be the first to say I hate losing Torres the person. Great story, great energy and had a huge year in 2010. That said, he was putrid in 2011 and would not have played this year. Ramirez was a solid arm in 2011 but if there's one area that the Giants can afford to pick from, it's the bullpen. With B Weezy, Romo, Affeldt, Javy and Casilla, they're set so Ramirez was expendable. And Pagan is a guy I've liked for 3 years. If you'll remember, he was one of the guys I mentioned late last year as a possible signing for the Giants in the offseason (6demonbagsf.blogspot.com/2011/09/playing-out-string.html 4th paragraph down). Pagan is a very good center fielder, can leadoff and will steal 30+ bases. While he's been injury prone, he was healthy for the last 4 months of 2011 and was productive. So you're going to get solid production for a guy who was going to be cut and an expendable arm. I like Pagan more than most, but his speed is something the Giants haven't had consistently for a while and the dude can flat out play.
Grade: B+

The "Signings" - Fontenot, Mota, Whiteside and Burriss

Now I used parentheses for the word signings because they were atrocious. I realize that Sabean was hamstrung from the higher ups as far as payroll but come on bro. Fontenot over Keppinger makes zero sense to me. I see everyone writing that Keppy was so bad defensively but he was going to be a backup to SS/2B. He's serviceable on D and the dude can hit. They've decided that Crawford is their SS this year. I'm fine with that. But he's a lefty. Shouldn't his backup offer something different. So if the Giants are facing a nasty lefty (Kershaw, Cory Luebke from SD, Pomeranz from COL), they just replace Crawford with Fontenot, another lefty? I realize Fonty is actually better vs. leftys than righties but still, nonsensical to me. Grade: D

Whiteside? Seriously? Not to mention the fact that they have Stewart and Hector Sanchez (who should hands down be the backup C. Posey catches a max of 120 games so Sanchez would get AB's). But one of the amazing Molina brothers (yes, that Molina. Bengie's younger brother Jose) was available. He's a proven backup, can hit for a backup and P.S. led the league in % of runners thrown out. He must have cost too much right? Yup, he signed a 1 year deal for $1.5 million. They signed Eli for $425k to a Major League deal (which almost guarantees him a spot on the roster for 2012). So for $1 million more, the Giants could have solved their backup C problem and let Sanchez play in AAA for the entire year. Grade: F-

Manny Burriss is back. I like his speed, like his versatility. Hate him as a player. While he won't see a ton of AB's, he really offers nothing. I guess he can steal a bag. Maybe this is the last chance for him, I don't know. He's been highly thought of from the Giants brass for years. I hope he can contribute but just don't see much upside here. Grade: C-

Mota! Mota! Mota! As you can tell from the picture to this blog, I LOVE Mota. He can easily step into Ramirez's role if needed or conitinue his role as the stabilizer during a typical Zito start. He'll routinely be called on in the 3rd or 4th inning every 5th day. Perfect. I think Zito/Mota is a great 5th starter. Grade: A+

So that's a "brief" recap of the offseason. Could have been worse (not really) but it's not all Sabean's fault. 2 good trades, 3 bad signings and exactly ZERO game changing moves. Who's to blame? Not Bill Nuekom. He got forced out by the "Executive Committee" because they didn't like the way he communicated with them. Seriously, look it up. That's why. He'll be missed. You'll see.

I'll be back periodically hopefully until Spring Training when I'll be going full bore again. And maybe I'll discuss our GS Warriors as well in the coming days.

Season recap....

I'm going to post a long winded, opinion based, unreadable season recap on the abortion that was the Giants 2011 season tomorrow. I'm gathering my thoughts, looking up stats and contracts and will give a synopsis of each player for the season that was and the upcoming season.

So I'll see you tomorrow.....

Here we go.....

Basically, the Giants can't lose another game. How sick would it be if they reel off 8 straight and tie at the end of the year and have a 1 game playoff? Like against the Cubs way back in 1998 when and they started Mark Gardner  vs. Steve Trachsel and got shut out for 8 innings but put up 3 in the 9th to lose 5-3. I'll be honest, if the Giants had a 1 game playoff with any team other than the Dodgers and Kershaw, I put them as the favorite.

I have a golf tourney today so I gotta keep this short. The Song goes tonight and I'd love for him to produce in the clutch. At this point, every game is a playoff game and if he throws well, it's a huge boost going into next year for the Giants rotation...

Why I dislike the Giants....

Because they make me care. I was totally prepared to write them off so I could focus on the football season. Now they've won 8 in a row and are 5 back in the West and 4 back in the Wild Card. Bochy, for the most part, has let the kids play in September and they've responded. Playoffs or not, we have sen what this team could be next year. If they get a leadoff centerfielder, with Panda, Beltran, Keppy, Posey, Freddy and maybe even Belt, Pill or Crawford in the mix, they have a steady offensive base when they're healthy.

Question....when am I ok with Huff as my starting 1st baseman? Well, if Belt is in the left field, never. But my real answer is if he's the 5th or 6th best hitter in my lineup. With Panda and Beltran (if he re-signs) and Posey the Giants have their 3-4-5 hitters (not necessarily in that order). With either Freddy or Keppy hitting 2nd (I prefer Keppy 2nd, Freddy 6th or 7th), Huff can be the 6th or 7th hitter. I'm totally fine with that. We've seen the worst of Huff this year. So next year if he evens out, I'll take .265-.270 with 15-20 HR's and 65-75 RBI's from the 6th/7th hitter.

But for the rest of this year, I'd love for Pill to get more AB's and Crawford to be in the lineup vs. lefties to see if what he can do. If not him, then when the Giants face a lefty, put Keppy at shortstop and let Fontenot play 2nd (he hits a respectable .250 vs. lefties). And I'll say again....CABRERA SHOULD NOT SEE THE FIELD. Mike Murphy should hide his uniform. He STILL offers nothing. I bet he's a great, likable guy. If so, he should turn into what Torres is now. A dugout guy. Who's the first guy to welcome a Giants hitter at the top step of the dugout? Torres. And you know he says, "Vamos! Come on baby!" Love him as a 5th OF'er next year.

Tomorrow the Giants get Kershaw. So, basically, it's a loss. Not because it's the Giants but because he owns them and he's been unreal all year. He's won 17 of his last 19 decisions. The Dodgers have won 13 of his last 16 starts. And he faces Lincy. How does this game not end 2-0 and Lincy throws 7 innings and gives up 1 earned? Kershaw should win the Cy Young in the NL this year. 1st in wins, ERA and Strikeouts.

Here's to hoping the Giants can reel off 8 more in a row after Tuesday and make things interesting :-)